| Testing the surge: Why did violence decline in Iraq in 2007? S Biddle, JA Friedman, JN Shapiro International Security 37 (1), 7-40, 2012 | 336 | 2012 |
| 2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy S Biddle, JA Friedman U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, 2009 | 163 | 2009 |
| Assessing uncertainty in intelligence JA Friedman, R Zeckhauser Intelligence and National Security 27 (6), 824-847, 2012 | 110 | 2012 |
| Manpower and counterinsurgency: Empirical foundations for theory and doctrine JA Friedman Security Studies 20 (4), 556-591, 2011 | 80 | 2011 |
| The value of precision in probability assessment: Evidence from a large-scale geopolitical forecasting tournament JA Friedman, JD Baker, BA Mellers, PE Tetlock, R Zeckhauser International Studies Quarterly 62 (2), 410-422, 2018 | 64 | 2018 |
| Handling and mishandling estimative probability: Likelihood, confidence, and the search for Bin Laden JA Friedman, R Zeckhauser Intelligence and National Security 30 (1), 77-99, 2015 | 58 | 2015 |
| War and chance: Assessing uncertainty in international politics JA Friedman Oxford University Press, 2019 | 49 | 2019 |
| Using power laws to estimate conflict size JA Friedman Journal of Conflict Resolution 59 (7), 1216-1241, 2015 | 45 | 2015 |
| Behavioral consequences of probabilistic precision: Experimental evidence from national security professionals JA Friedman, JS Lerner, R Zeckhauser International Organization 71 (4), 803-826, 2017 | 35 | 2017 |
| Priorities for preventive action: Explaining Americans’ divergent reactions to 100 public risks JA Friedman American Journal of Political Science 63 (1), 181-196, 2019 | 30 | 2019 |
| Civil war intervention and the problem of Iraq S Biddle, JA Friedman, S Long International Studies Quarterly 56 (1), 85-98, 2012 | 26 | 2012 |
| Analytic confidence and political decision‐making: Theoretical principles and experimental evidence from national security professionals JA Friedman, R Zeckhauser Political Psychology 39 (5), 1069-1087, 2018 | 25 | 2018 |
| Why assessing estimative accuracy is feasible and desirable JA Friedman, R Zeckhauser Intelligence and National Security 31 (2), 178-200, 2016 | 21 | 2016 |
| Correspondence: Assessing the synergy thesis in Iraq J Hagan, J Kaiser, A Hanson, JR Lindsay, AG Long, S Biddle, ... International Security 37 (4), 173-198, 2013 | 16* | 2013 |
| Is US grand strategy dead? The political foundations of deep engagement after Donald Trump JA Friedman International Affairs 98 (4), 1289-1305, 2022 | 9 | 2022 |
| Improving the accuracy of geopolitical risk assessments BA Mellers, PE Tetlock, JD Baker, JA Friedman, R Zeckhauser The future of risk management, 1-28, 2019 | 7* | 2019 |
| How cumulative dynamics affect military decision making JA Friedman Working Paper. Hanover, NH: Dartmouth University, 2014 | 7* | 2014 |
| False Beliefs, the Myth of ‘Post-Truth,’and the Need for a Capacious Political Epistemology J Friedman Political Epistemology 1, 21-34, 2021 | 4 | 2021 |
| Why Quantitative Probability Assessments Are Empirically Justifiable in Foreign Policy Analysis JA Friedman, JD Baker, BA Mellers, PE Tetlock, R Zeckhauser Foreign Policy Analysis, 1-33, 2015 | 3 | 2015 |
| Issue-Image Trade-Offs and the Politics of Foreign Policy: How Leaders Use Foreign Policy Positions to Shape Their Personal Images JA Friedman World Politics 75 (2), 280-315, 2023 | 2 | 2023 |
